⚖️ Data ki Adaalat
Mukadma = stock · Sunwai = har 90 din · Pairvi = RESULT (baaki sab chup) · Gawah = orderbook, CWIP, margin · Chashmadeed = delivery% + DII creep · Jhootha gawah = other-income one-off (adjusted se cross-examination) · Case file = AR/concall — faisla aane se pehle likhi hoti hai.
Faisle: 🟢 Re-rating = baizzat bari + muavza · 🔴 De-rating = jurmana (ummeed se zyada katta hai) · 🟡 Compression = tareekh pe tareekh — price khada, waqt katta hai. Appeal = 1 clean beat + confirm.
Har stock ka APNA mukadma — sector/leader/ladder ka daur mein zero weight. Na tera na mera — sab khela Result ka.
🏛️ Neev
Market mein sirf result chalta hai — P/E, DCF, levels sab reflection. Jo sabke paas hai wo chaara hai; edge = jo likha hai par chhapa nahi. Flow: SELECT → CONFIRM → TIME → MANAGE.
1 · Data hierarchy
AR/PPT/concall/filings = sach + future → apna calc → Screener sirf cross-check. AR saal mein THAPPA, quarterly har 90 din ENTRY.
2 · Story (missing parts)
Capex jahan revenue zero · CWIP↑ = revenue 18–24 mahine door · orderbook guidance cover kare · naye vertical milestones · PLI optionality. DCF veto sirf no-story bucket mein.
3 · Daur (3–4 qtr trail)
Growth ki disha · result-day reaction · guidance vs delivery · margin ki disha · runway vs mcap — judgment se. Tag: RE-RATING / DE-RATING / COMPRESSION. 1 quarter se kabhi tay nahi.
4 · P/E (daur-conditional)
Forward EPS har quarter revise. Re-rating: fwd EPS × current multiple hold; girta PE + badhta EPS = bullish. De-rating: wapsi = 1 clean beat + confirm. Compression: target = flat price. Median P/E sirf alarm.
5 · Footprints
Large/mid: DII/FII creep + delivery ≥50% girte mein. Small/micro: promoter + bulk deals; FII/DII entry LATE signal. Blow-off mein girti delivery = churning.
6 · Entry/Exit
Entry sirf filter-pass stock: support-cluster hold ya breakout-retest. Missed-rally: naye quarter ke max 2 windows — no chase, no substitute. SL levels-based; 50% book / 50% ride; execution fail = exit.
⛔ 7 · Kabhi nahi
Mechanical rules nahi · TTM×median target nahi · random-universe signal nahi · aggregator final sach nahi · S/R-commodity app nahi. Faisla hamesha Amol ka.